Unfortunately today’s video won’t be up until tonight as I cut it at 2.15 this morning before heading to Aberdeen where I am currently. The video failed to upload but will have it up tonight once home.

The pattern remains much the same. A large banana shaped high pressure zone remains strong, extending from Atlantic to Russia while a conga line of lows run beneath across the Med keeping things unsettled. The main low spinning over Italy has been slowly drifting into the Balkans where flooding rain has caused issue while moisture lifting north into the colder air has led to the first snows over parts of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania west into Poland.

This Siberian air mass continues spreading west and with high pressure comes widespread clear, calm skies but the cooling of the atmosphere means nights are turning colder for the Low Countries and UK too.

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Yesterday morning saw a colder start further west.

850mb temperatures show the ribbon of cold, continental air now reaching the UK.

Expect nights to turn even colder in the coming nights while a colder start to the day means a colder daytime maximum too. But blame the cold continental flow for the cooler days and nights. A more widespread frost is likely towards mid to late week.

The first snows reached Russia Sunday, Poland yesterday and may well cross Germany today/tonight as a stagnant low throws Med moisture north into the cold air sliding west.

This was the scene from Krakow, Poland yesterday morning.

Europe snow cover as of Oct 12.

GFS snow forecast for the next 72 hrs.

A front attempts to push into Scotland Thursday but latest models show this weakening as the height field holds at around 1032mb. With a weaker southern flank, precipitation could creep through the Low Countries into Southeast England, accompanied by a strengthening northeast wind blowing in from Denmark as the pressure gradient tightens.

The CFSv2 weekly 500mb height anomaly chart shows little change in the upper height field through the rets of October which suggests a drier than normal pattern and rather tranquil by October standards.

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