Blocking High To Drive Joaquin Into Iberia While First Cold Blast Sweeps In From Russia

Written by Mark Vogan on October 7, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We’re closely monitoring the progress of Joaquin which remains a hurricane as of now but transition is soon to come as it leaves the warm water.

This evening visible satellite loop looks to show a transitioning Joaquin.

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Latest information.

Hurricane JOAQUIN
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 07, 2015:

Location: 39.6°N 54.9°W
Maximum Winds: 70 kt Gusts: 85 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 350 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

Latest infrared imagery shows Hurricane Joaquin taking that turn away from North America.

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The hurricane is holding together pretty well thanks to abnormally warm water off eastern North America but as you can see from the below SSTA map abnormally warm water soon becomes abnormally cold water.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Transition from warm core to cold core will take place soon as water temps sharply cool and it gets picked up by the westerlies.

Baroclinic properties take over and the system should re-intensify as a baroclinic depression. It’s driving force becomes the thermal gradient and not the warm water beneath.

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The reason for such a tricky forecast coming up is knowing where Joaquin will track on approach to Europe. Significant height rises over Scandinavia extending south and west means the boulder is being set up.

The old model track guidance shows a north-south divide. A crossroads before Ireland. One bunch of tracks took it north of Scotland while the other bunch took it more towards Iberia. The newer run is in better agreement at the more southern option.

Old

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

New run shows more southern track and staying south of the UK but bringing nasty weather to Spain and Portugal.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

NHC are taking this towards Spain and Portugal.

Credit: NHC

There’s in fact two highs which look to protect the UK and Ireland from Joaquin, A high which lifts up from the Azores in the wake of the low currently affecting the UK and this looks to join up with the huge high building down from Scadninavia, this looks to push Joaquin into either the Bay of Biscay or into Portugal/NW Spain.

What’s also interesting is the GFS sees Joaquin slowing and crawling into Iberia but there’s a more noteworthy, ‘Medicane’ spinning over Italy. Meanwhile the UK and Ireland is looking largely fine and dry.