Here’s a quick glance at the 500mb height and surface temperature anomalies for September 2015 across Europe. Is this a setup which will be mirrored this winter?

Note the difference in upper heights and temps from the June-August period with strongest heights/warmest temps across the South.

Warming SST’s north of the UK is taking the mean ridge north and as waters cool underneath, so that’s where the trough goes. Excellent ocean to atmosphere reflection.

Early July 2015 SST’s

Current

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Last night was another cold one under optimum conditions for strong radiational cooling. Notice a few -2s on the map.

The night before saw -3 at Ravensworth. A sure sign of things to come.

As low pressures makes a return so our day to night temp levels off to within a few degrees rather than by 15 to 20C. It’ll be a leave stripping week. Dust down the rain coat! Note the remnant low of Joaquin enters the fray come Friday but unlike the Express’s latest doomsday headline of a ‘140 mph Superstorm heading for Britain’, this will merely enhance what will be an often wet, windy week. Textbook for early October.

Hope you’ve enjoyed this 7-10 day stretch of glorious weather because heights continue to fall with clouds making a return across our skies and soon wind and rain returns too.

Models show the return of the wetter pattern.

Next 5 days

10 days

SST’s for late Sep 2009 are pretty similar to now, more so in the Atlantic and lest we forget, this was the winter which followed.

Winter Forecast coming out less than a month from now…

See video for the discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]