Within 150-200 miles of the Bahamas, Joaquin went from a strong 70 mph Tropical Storm to a Category 4 monster generating sustained winds of up to 130 mph as it spins directly over this beautiful island chain.

The devastating aspect is twofold, 1) it’s a large and extremely powerful system but 2) the slow movement means that the Bahamas will and is experiencing the worst conditions possible for a very long period of time.

https://youtu.be/D7yQTGFYF0I

Here’s the current view from space.

Infrared

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: NASA

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With central pressure dropping to an impressive 931mb, Joaquin becomes the 4th strongest Bahamas hurricane in history.

Thanks to a well organised and healthy system along with ample ocean heat content beneath and light shear within it’s surrounding environment, Joaquin had no option but to intensify and rapidly. Going from Cat 1 to 4 with 36 hours and from Cat 1 to 3 within 24 hours.

Shear charts show the area of relative calm around the hurricane with trough both NW and E.

Upper winds

Mid level winds

84-88F water temperatures extend some 50 metres below the surface in this part of the Atlantic.

Due to the southwestward movement of Joaquin caused by an upper system to the east, this means there’s unlikely to be any pull-in from the trough digging over the Southeast US and therefore it’s a kick and not pull which keeps Joaquin out at sea and passing between Hattaras and Bermuda early Monday.

Latest NHC track.

MAJOR EAST COAST FLOOD EVENT NOT CAUSED BY JOAQUIN

Well worth noting that although Joaquin is unlikely to impact the US directly, the Eastern Seaboard almost has it’s own ‘hurricane’ as a deluge continues from an entirely separate system, NOT Joaquin. An area of enhanced convection which formed along the tail of the stalled frontal boundary is drawing moisture rich air from a warm Atlantic and driving it continuously into the Carolinas.

Through in Joaquin’s influence and this is the result.

To make matters worse, Joaquin’s moisture is likely to get plugged by this stalled boundary as the hurricane lifts north, exasperating an already bad and life-threatening situation.

Visible satellite from yesterday shows the East Coast system and Joaquin to the south.

Combination of stalled front and Joaquin underneath, this setup is like a ‘fire hose’ up the EC.

Water vapour.

Just look at these totals. Remember this is South Carolina and not Taiwan!

As for the broader picture, there’s two large and pretty strong looking waves coming off the African coast. Worth a watching.

See video for the discussion. More tomorrow.

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Tags: carolina flooding, East Coast Flooding, hurricane, hurricane joaquin