Not one, not two but THREE systems are setting the stage for a potentially devastating flood situation over the Eastern Seaboard through the next 5-7 days.

We had the initial system which came out of the Gulf and is now pouring rain over the Northeast, then secondly we’ve got a frontal system pushing down from the Great Lakes that will stall just off the EC plugging and drawing in moisture rich air from a warm Atlantic Ocean, this will likely bring big rains from the Carolinas up into New England, thirdly and likely the biggest threat is Joaquin that now brings a hurricane threat with the almost sudden development and intensification. Models are showing scary scenarios not that dissimilar to Sandy.

Rainfall totals within the next 7 days could be among the highest in decades with all three systems expected to drop between 5-20 inches. We could see local amounts pass 24-28 inches.

3 day totals

5 day totals

 

Here’s the latest infrared

Waters are plenty warm between it’s current position east of the Bahamas and the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast, but particularly beneath the system now and with light northerly shear easing, expect rapid intensification within the next 36 hours. This may go from a strong TS as it supposedly is now to a Cat 3 or in no time.

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Will many focus on MODELS and forecast TRACKS, to better see where they may be going, we need to look at the much larger weather map because it’s the pattern not the storm that dictates where it’s heading. We’ve a deepening eastern US trough and a fairly deep trough to the east of the system.

It’s the influence and interaction that will determine whether Joaquin remains at sea or gets pulled into the Mid-Atlantic. My belief at this moment in time is that it’s heading for the US and I agree with the below GFS which shows the system being pulled in by the deepening of the US trough while the trough to the east pulls east and heights build.

Latest NHC track.

Latest model spray!

Latest GFS surface.

HWRF goes berserk.

GFDL likewise.

Fairbanks Get Hit By Greatest September Snowstorm On Record

The latest of two snowstorms to affect Fairbanks and central Alaska dropped over 11.2 inches yesterday cutting power and downing some tree limbs. This makes it Fairbanks snowiest September day on record yesterday and second snowiest Sep.

See video for more.

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Tags: hurricane joaquin