After a lovely spell of fine, dry and pleasant early autumn weather with cool nights and warm days across Northwest Europe, the bubble has burst! That means low pressure is back and really where it belongs for the time of year.

The storm track has shifted back north and the UK and Ireland can expect a series of lows pushing through over the next week to 10 days. While heights collapse allowing the return of Atlantic weather into Ireland, UK and near continent, heights rebuild over Iberia and through the Med Basin in response where it’s been stormy of late.

As you know, I am vacationing on the southwest tip of Menorca and it’s certainly looking and feeling like mid summer with daytime highs of 27-29C, lows by night 21-23C. The breeze makes it a little more comfortable though it’s a warm breeze. With water temps at around 26-27C (warmer than the pool), there’s a lot of humidity in the air, helping it stay warm at night.

I say there’s a series of lows set to cross the UK over the next week or so, within the low pressure train, we’ve the remnants of former TS Henri and modelling takes this system NNE into the UK as an extra-tropical entity mid next week. Tropical origins and coming straight up from the subtropics suggests a lot of rain with this thing. Local flooding is quite possible and wind could be quite a feature too.

Here’s the GFS surface of the upcoming week to 10 day period.

 

GFS suggests another very deep, tightly wound low crossing the UK at 324 hrs (25th)

Despite this upcoming 7-10 day period of unsettled weather with even a few major hits of wind and rain, longer range ensembles still show a more relaxed end to September.

EPS control

Will have more autumn and winter talk in the coming days.