After a very slow start to the 2015 season due to colder than normal water, strong easterlies and dusty dry air, conditions are steadily improving and we’re seeing the results.

The African wave train is shedding several large waves out into the tropical Atlantic now and we’ve seen the development of Danny, rapidly intensifying into a Cat 3 before falling apart and now we’ve Erika and this, while struggling, is a larger system that’s more likely to handle shear and shed off dry air as it tracks across the northern Caribbean.

Lots of moisture through the tropics next 7 days indicates lowering pressure, increased convection.

Latest advisories etc.

Latest model spray. Most models take Erika into the Bahamas.

Due to increased atmospheric hostility on approach to the typically dry Leeward Island atmosphere (during El Ninos), the system is unlikely to strengthen much over the next 2 days but as it tracks NORTH of Hispaniola, shear and dry air is expected to be less and most models develop Erika into a hurricane this weekend on approach to the Bahamas.

While conditions become more favourable between Cuba and the Bahamas, surface heat content increases too and to greater depth below the surface.

How strong do the models see Erika getting?

Shear is in the path of Erika and is currently affecting the structure. Warm core systems like to have little or no shear so convection can rise vertically. Erika is currently lopsided and by that it’s deepest convection and strongest winds are away from the low level center.

In saying that, this morning’s visible satellite shows a better organised system today.

Not much dry air around either.

Conditions are expected to improve to the north of the islands and waters get warmer closer to the Bahamas, hence why most models show Erika as a Hurricane close to Florida late this weekend.

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JMA shear projections.

Here’s the 120 hour ECMWF which shows Erika between Miami and the Bahamas early Monday.

HWRF

 

GFDL

See today’s video for the latest thoughts on Erika. Lot’s happening. Keep right here for the most up-to-date info. Follow my updates on twitter.

An excellent breakdown on Erika and the forecast by Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits

 

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Tags: atlantic hurricane season 2015, erika, hurricane erika, hurricane season 2015, tropical cyclone, tropical storm erika, tropics