The summer forecast for the US has played out not too bad. It’s been cool and wet from the Central US up into the Great Lakes, warm around the coasts where waters offshore are running well above normal. As for Texas, well it was a very wet spring and start to summer but a very dry July, made for a hot start to August, indicative of El Ninos and this was highlighted in my summer forecast back in April.

This years El Nino continues to be compared to the 1997-98 event but there are differences including the warmer PDO.

Whether the 2015 El Nino reaches levels of 97-98 or not, this event is one of the strongest and will have significant impacts on the upcoming winter across the hemisphere.

Often with strong El Nino years, there’s a tendency for cooler and wetter but like we saw in May, there can be a bookend effect with a warmer September. The CFSv2 is seeing that.

Here’s the CFSv2 hemispheric 500mb height anomalies for Sept.

US view. Note the ridge is positioned where it’s been fairly cool and wet this summer. Building into the Great Lakes, this is a classic set up with an eastern trough split with one piece leaving and the other holding and drifting into the Southeast, Gulf or off the South Atlantic coast.

With the Atlantic at least becoming less hostile and a more active wave train coming off Africa, one must be concerned about a US tropical cyclone hit in September and the piece left behind will ultimately ‘incubate’ a region over abnormally warm water. Just takes a few waves, albeit weak to light up just off the coast.

Looks like plenty of warm, sunny days into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast for fall’s opening month!

CFSv2 500mb height anomaly.

It looks to remain wet in central and interior West locations while dry along the East Coast.

Where wet it should be cool and where dry it should be warm and that’s what the CFSv2 is seeing.

As we head deeper into the fall season of 2015, expect rain to become more focused across the Southern Tier while it becomes drier in the North indicative of the strong El Nino.

October 500mb height anomaly

October precipitation anomaly

October temperature anomaly

November 500mb anomaly

November precipitation anomaly

November temperature anomaly

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TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Leo Hirsbrunner

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