It’s been a fairly decent week overall with plenty of warm sunshine on offer and it’s felt more like it should for the time of year across Northern Ireland and Scotland. In the sunshine yesterday, temperatures reached 24.4C in Northwest Highland Scotland and despite the cloud today, it remains fairly muggy as an Icelandic low draws our air up from the Azores.

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Friday looks similar to today with a mix of sunshine and showers, showers mainly in the west and where the sun shines further east, well we are likely to see 25, 26C in the Southeast.

However, things get interesting this weekend as a seemingly innocuous frontal boundary draped SW to NE across England begins to generate heavy rain through the first half of Saturday. This boundary marks a very sharp thermal gradient as temps may approach 30C in London while it remains closer to 18C in Glasgow. Interestingly, the very front looks to develop into a full fledged low over the UK Saturday afternoon into the evening and it looks like heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms break out widely as energy aloft is fuelled by very warm, moist, subtropical air lifting up from France. This could make for a downright stormy and very wet Saturday night into Sunday with high flood potential.

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts for the next few days, shown in this morning’s video.

As the boundary ‘lights up’, so it turns downright hot and humid to the east!

This setup with very warm, humid air lifting north and the formation of low pressure over the UK, the stage appears set for flood or flash flood potential along with intense thunderstorms.

Will have more on next week and beyond in tomorrow post/video.

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