Over the next 48 hours we will have our weather coming in from both sides. In from the North Sea (today) and from Atlantic (tomorrow) and so today’s sunshine and relative warmth in the West means a cool, steady rain in the East, expect the opposite tomorrow as the eastern front (associated with the Scandinavian blocking high) fades, then allows for an Atlantic front, associated with low pressure to move in bringing a cooler, wetter day to the West while the sun shines and it feels warm in the East.

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Late week doesn’t look too bad give or take some showers but it’s as we head into the weekend where things turn more active and more challenging forecast wise. As for next week, low pressure appears to take charge once again as the Scandinavia high shrinks enough to allow a more open door off the Atlantic. However heights remain strong enough that our lows move from SW to NE, a track predominantly WEST of the UK and this setup may make for some pretty warm and humid days next week. Timing and exact path of the lows will be crucial and as per usual both GFS and ECMWF are saying different things.

Notice how the GFS has a much warmer scenario with more consolidated lows track more to our west with stronger ridging over the near continent, which deflects lows more northwards whereas the ECMWF suggests larger lows with weaker heights over the near continent and therefore greater coverage across the UK of cooler, cloudier and wetter conditions.

GFS

ECMWF

Looking at the medium term and both EPS Control and GFS operational (ensemble is currently updating) agree on the trough being more of an influence next week but the ridge has more play day 10-15.

GFS is more bullish on the ridge day 10-15.

CFSv2 hasn’t done great in it’s precipitation outlook in recent months but I’m in agreement with it’s dry September, wet October.

See video for the discussion.

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