As expected, the UK is sandwiched between fronts with clear, settled conditions in between. While the Atlantic tries to throw the next low our way, the expanding Scandinavian high with wind and rain along it’s western flank is attempting to push in from the North Sea and will do tonight and tomorrow. This is an atmospheric conflict but it’s a less mobile and unsettled regime compared to recent times.

The high separating the Atlantic front from Scandinavian front is providing fine, dry and warmer weather by day but thanks to the cooler air mass and less humidity associated, nights turn quite cool beneath clear sky and light wind.

Here was the cool overnight lows over the UK.

Remember, cooler, DRIER air cools quicker than warmer, moister air.

As for the southern flank of the same Scandinavian high, well it’s ending the central and eastern Europe heat wave, sparking heavy showers and storms with localised flooding and severe weather.

Monthly departures to date.

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This is also bringing some much needed rain to an increasingly dry continent. Dry continent and warm Med equates to warmer than normal weather and that’s certainly been the case this month, especially over Germany, Poland into the Alps and Balkans.

Looking back at the last 7 days. It’s been dry and hot across much of the continent.

Precip anomalies.

Temp anomalies

I showed you in last week’s video and written posts how our weather will begin to come in from the east while Atlantic weather tries to come in from the west. It’s large and expanding Scandinavia highs which turn to reverse our mid and upper level air flow, bringing in weather from the continent and pushes back Atlantic weather. Had this been winter and we’d probably be getting excited.

The big question now is, does the Atlantic or continent win this week? Both Atlantic and Scandinavian fronts wind battle over UK air space this week but overall, it’s looking like there’s mopre dry, settled and warm days than cool, cloudy and wet. Does it last?

The belo0w GFS surface charts show the initial influence of the Scandinavian front bringing wind and rain to the UK east, then that weakens and lifts out allowing an Atlantic front to influence the UK west. Then it seems high pressure dominates late week into the weekend.

Interestingly the GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show ridge domination in the upcoming 5 days then Atlantic day 5-10 then ridge returns day 10-15.

The GFS holds the ridge more and notice by day 10-15 how it’s a positive over negative setup for the UK as well as the continent. This suggests more unsettled over southern Europe as well as the UK, more settled and warmer further north in areas that have missed out.

Here’s the EPS Control version. Again there’s a battle between Atlantic and continent.

Finally, here’s the CFSv2 weeklies which show the fight also and tries to pull in the ridge again week 3-4 after some pullback week 2 like the GFS above suggests.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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Tags: Europe heat, europe weather, uk weather