When it comes to Texas in 2015, the El Nino gives then takes. It’s been about as extreme as it gets when it comes to flips in weather pattern.
After a record wet and therefore cool April, May and for some, June too, the weather flipped big time to a dry and therefore hot July and now August. In fact record hot!
Despite a very wet spring and early summer, a July with little rain means fast drying out beneath the strong mid summer sunshine and it doesn’t take long till the ridge and surface heat builds to unpleasant levels.
Yesterday was the hottest of the year so far for Texas with a high of 106 degrees in Dallas (warmest since 2012) and 102 degrees in Houston (warmest since 2013). Today will be warmer!!
Dallas / NE Texas
Houston / SE Texas.
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Drought conditions have returned to Texas and with good reason.
Dallas/Fort Worth – Consecutive Days Without Measurable Precipitation
| Rank | # of Days | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 84 | Jul 1 – Sep 22, 2000 |
| 2 (tie) |
58 | Nov 4 – Dec 31, 1950 |
| 58 | May 25 – Jul 21, 1934 | |
| 4 | 56 | Jul 11 – Sep 4, 1999 |
| 5 | 54 | Oct 7 – Nov 29, 1955 |
| 6 | 52 | Dec 12, 1985 – Feb 1, 1986 |
| 7 | 48 | Sep 20 – Nov 6, 1924 |
| 8 | 46 | Jun 13 – Jul 28, 1974 |
| 9 | 45 | Jun 8 – Jul 22, 1978 |
| 10 | 44 | Dec 7, 1922 – Jan 19, 1923 |
Dallas/Fort Worth – Consecutive Days Without Any Precipitation
| Rank | # of Days | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55 | Jul 30 – Sep 22, 2000 |
| 2 | 45 | Jun 8 – Jul 22, 1978 |
| 3 | 40 | Nov 1 – Dec 10, 1903 |
| 4 (tie) |
39 | Jun 26 – Aug 3, 1993 |
| 39 | Oct 9 – Nov 16, 1917 | |
| 6 | 33 | Jul 11 – Aug 12, 1999 |
| 7 (tie) |
32 | *Jul 9 – Aug 9, 2015 |
| 32 | Feb 12 – Mar 14, 1972 | |
| 9 | ||
| 31 | Jul 6 – Aug 5, 2006 | |
| 10 (tie) |
30 | Jul 6 – Aug 4, 1998 |
| 30 | Sep 22 – Oct 21, 1975 |
* streak still active
Evaporation rates are highest of the year and in Texas, evaporation rates are among the highest anywhere in the US.
During El Nino years there’s a tendency for a drier and therefore warmer pattern mid July onwards, we’ve seen this in many an El Nino year and this was indeed highlighted in my 2015 summer forecast issued back on April 1. There’s a strong relationship between lack of rain, high evaporation rates and stronger upper level ridges in response. When this setup comes together, your talking triple-digit heat for most in the Lone Star State.
As of yesterday, Houston has recorded it’s 4th straight 100 degree day, 4th of the year. None were recorded last year despite the severe drought in place. However, this stretch is a far cry to 2011 as you can see from the below graphic.
Credit: abc13
Speaking of 2011, check out the below graphic, only ONE day didn’t reach 100 in Houston during August!
Yesterday also marked the 29th straight 95+ degree day, this streak won’t end for at least another 7 days.
Though air temperature by day hasn’t been as bad at the coast compared to inland, humidity levels have been higher as you’d expect with near 90 degree water. Nights have been particularly oppressive around Galveston, not managing to get below 80 degrees for a remarkable 38th straight nights. This is a new record!
NOT JUST TEXAS
Further east and today marks 29 straight days at or above 95 in Jackson, MS which ties a record going all the way back to 1896. That record will break tomorrow.
In New Orleans, today marks an impressive 43 straight days at or above 90. This ties 3rd place for longest on record.
Credit: GMA
As we progress into late week it looks like the core of this hot dome slides slightly west allowing a front to the north to drift south increasing the chance of cooling thunderstorms and some much needed rainfall.
GFS operational 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show the westward shift in the ridge while the trough and cooler weather holds in the Northeast for a time. However notice in the day 5-10 that there’s an interesting upper trough hanging over SE Texas, Louisiana out into the Gulf. That’s a trough split as heights begin to build further north leaving some negative behind. Something worth noting in terms of possible development? By day 10-15, the ridge is more or less coast to coast with negative heights to the south. That’s a setup worth watching for building heat widely across the country as well as development either the Gulf or Atlantic coasts.
See video for today’s discussion.
Tomorrow I shall be looking at this hurricane season and how NHC has issued their quietest seasonal forecast ever! Stay tuned.
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