As pointed out in the summer forecast issued back on April 1, strong El Nino summers often turn drier and warmer in Texas during August and September and sure enough it’s turning drier and at this time of year that means only one thing, warmer! I recall my first ever trip to the US and it was to Houston back in July 1998. To this day it is the hottest weather I’ve ever experienced and indeed it was a record dry, hot period throughout the Southern Plains.

It’s also turning increasingly dry and staying warmer than normal across the South.

A nice reflection in temperature anomaly so far this month.

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When the soils dry, the ridge pumps over Texas during August.

Despite record rains and the erase of the 4 year drought, 2-3 weeks of dry weather with extremely high evaporation rates at this time of year, parts of Texas are now back in ‘abnormally dry’ territory once again.

This return to abnormally dry in Texas could lead into the hottest spell of weather since summer 2013 with day after day of upper 90s, low 100s.

Forecasted highs according to the ECMWF through the weekend and into next week.

Another region the heat should continue to be attracted to and has been all summer is the Carolinas.

Expect it to be a warm to hot August and September from Texas to the Carolinas and with the drought and El Nino pattern well established, expect a warm, dry end to summer and much of fall across the Pacific Northwest but remaining cooler and wetter than normal down over California and across the Southwest and Great Basin.

While the trough looks to linger over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. This colder air aloft combined with wet ground will make for a cool August from the Plains to Appalachians. A bit of back and fourth I think for the Northeast, possibly leaning warmer than normal for the DC area and well above normal down over the Carolinas.

Generous amounts of rain next 10 days, particularly over Kentucky, Tennessee eastwards where they sit in the separation zone between hot and humid to the south and cool, dry to the north. Systems love to run in between and generate training thunderstorms which dump big rain amounts in short periods of time.

The EPS Control is very similar to the GFS ensemble I put up last night with the cool north, warm south.

CFSv2 monthly temp/precip anomaly for August and September.

See today’s video for the latest discussion.

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Tags: el nino, el nino 2015