As we end July we have changes in the upper air pattern as the mean ridge pulls west. After a cool and at times wet past 2 weeks for the Southwest, temps are on the rise this upcoming week while a trough is set to drive a decent shot of cool into the Midwest and East.

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We of course need to watch off the Southeast coast as a front drops south and with the trough lifting out, heights build over top. This set up supports tropical incubation along the tail of a stuck front. Send a front out over 85-degree water this time of year and have it linger there for days, spin up is never far away if the atmosphere is just right.

What’s interesting is that the trough that’s now in the process of lifting out of the Northeast has helped support the first back to back sub 50-degree (10C) highs in a July since 1995 for St Johns, Newfoundland. As posted in recent days, the mean flow has been coming in off a very cold North Atlantic which may mean the coldest July for some on record.

It’s been just as cold in Newfoundland as Arctic Canada…

The high only managed 7.3C in Gander, Nflnd yesterday, the lowest July maximum since 1992.

Here’s the 5-day mean GFS ensemble which shows the ridge core shifting west while the trough drops into the Great Lakes and East.

2m temps/anomalies

ECMWF has backed off on organisation off Southeast coast but actually shows low forming inland. This situation bares watching over the next 10 days.

See today’s video for the discussion.

No post tomorrow but will a full update come Monday morning.

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