Despite ‘regional’ hot spells, this July won’t be remembered so much for heat and drought but more cool and especially wet. In fact nationally it’s likely been the coolest July since 2009 with no 100-degree day as of yet in Dallas, TX and only two 90s in New York while there’s been no 90s in a few Ohio Valley locations.

With the continued warming of the Pacific, expect more tropical cyclone formation off Mexico. Probably the biggest story of this month has been the incredibly rare July rains over California and the Southwest, a direct consequence of an unusually close by Tropical system named Dolores.

This is pretty incredible from a meteorological stand point and perhaps a first in history for July where majority of Central/Southern California has 600% normal rainfall.

Just look at how cool July’s been over the Southwest as a result, when it should be the hottest part of the country at the hottest time of the year, after all it’s desert!

I recon it stays wetter than normal over areas that’s seen abundant rain and cool as a result. The Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley, Central Plains and Southwest including Southern California should ALL see a wetter than normal August but areas such as Texas, Southeast and up the East Coast could turn warmer as it becomes drier through August.

The CFSv2 has the majority of the US cool except for the Southeast and Northwest as well as down the West Coast but I suspect the warm oceans will warm the coasts, supporting drier than normal along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as well as adding humidity which will make for unusually warm nights. The warm water off California is likely to support more threats of unusual summer rainfall from unusually far north tracking tropical cyclones.

Look for the core of cool to remain over the Ohio, Mid-Mississippi Valleys west into the Heartland, possibly extending into the Four Corners and Southwest. However, longer term modelling does support a westward migration of the 594 Texas ridge which could lead to 110s widely over the Desert mid to late August.

This pattern also supports possible ‘in-close’ tropical development off the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as troughs and fronts dive south and over the mid-80 degree waters.

100° Day Summary for Dallas/Fort Worth

Average Number of 100° Days (1981-2010): (March, April, and October have had 100° days, but the average is near zero.)

First and Last Occurrences (1899-2014): Average date of first 100°F: June 30 Average date of last 100°F: August 26 Earliest occurrence: Mar 9, 1911 (100°F) Latest occurrence: Oct 3, 1951 (106°F) Earliest last occurrence: May 30, 1928 (101°F) Latest first occurrence: Aug 23, 1989 (101°F)

Most and Fewest: Most in a calendar year: 71 (2011) Fewest in a calendar year: 0 (1973, 1906) Most consecutive: 42 (Jun 23 – Aug 3, 1980) Most in a month: 31 (Jul 1980) Greatest number of months in a year with at least one occurrence: 5 2006 – April, June, July, August, September 1998 – May, June, July, August, September 1925 – April, June, July, August, September 1911 – March, May, June, July, August Only month to record both 100°F and 32°F: Mar 1916 (25°F on the 3rd and 100°F on the 21st) If your interested in following my US forecasts in more detail with daily write-ups and videos, be sure to sign-up today.

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