It may have been a cool summer up until now (likely to continue too) over Northern Europe compared to points further south, but it may well be the coolest July on record for St Johns, Newfoundland after experiencing it’s warmest July just last year. How so drastically different in just 12 months?

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The fact that the NAO has been firmly negative has a lot to do with it but more importantly, it’s the positioning of the blocking high over Baffin Island and the fact that Atlantic water temperatures are among the coldest in decades in sealing the deal to the chill of July 2015 over eastern Newfoundland.

It’s the combination of a persistent blocking high north of Newfoundland and the NE winds blowing off unusually cold water.

Those winds are blowing straight off probably the deepest NEGATIVE SSTA anomaly anywhere globally!

Just look at how warm the waters surrounding Newfoundland were by the end of July last year, hence warmest July on record.

The LONG run of 20C+ highs during July in St John’s, Newfoundland appears to break this year.

Here’s a list of St Johns coldest July maximums but notice how August tends to be warmer!

Just a few days ago, I posted that Gander, Newfoundland witnessed a record cold maximum of just 10C or 50F. This was whilst the Northeast US was sweating in mid to even upper 90s with HI’s in the low 100s.

This is while ships struggle the ice off Baffin Island, July 19.

While parts of Newfoundland was near frost levels, Philadelphia saw a record warm low of 81 while DC see a low of 83, tied as 3rd warmest minimum on record. Yes, you can get the big contrasts on the same side of the country.

Thankfully for those not a fan of summer heat and humidity, the cool down has kicked in over the Northeast thanks to the passing of the latest cold front.

The trend is simple, it remains highly transient or progressive with a high dropping SE over the GL into the Mid-Atlantic and it’s all about the wind direction. Warmth is followed by cool then warmth again…

ECMWF weeklies have the upcoming 7 days cool.

Week 1

Note where the high is for eastern Canada…. over Baffin Bay and you know what that means, cold NNE winds off a 3-6C below normal Atlantic Ocean. In week 2-3 the high weakens while the trough over Alaska and Yukon also weakens.

2

3

This has been a very interesting summer with the cool in the NE of the continent, wet and cool in the Southwest and S Plains and the lack of 90s and major heat in the Lower Midwest. Dallas has yet to reach 100!

More US weather later this evening via video… Stay tuned!

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