Following a warm, dry end to winter and start to spring, the later half has turned considerably cooler and wetter across Northwest Europe and this has taken us into summer. The most notable aspect to June 2015 will be the far cooler than normal temperatures. This can be largely be attributed to a much colder than normal North Atlantic. However, with the help of a warmer eastern mid-Atlantic and Mediterranean, temperatures have averaged above normal across much of Spain, Portugal and the southern flank of the continent.

Water temperatures are having significant influence on how warm or cool the air is feeling this year.

May temperature anomaly.

June temperature anomaly to date.

Look at how closely land and sea anomalies match. No coincidence.

Based on model projection, there’s reason to believe July opens on a very warm note, even for Ireland and the UK. This, like every other ‘warm spell’ should be fairly brief but for the first time, heat spreads to all including Scotland and Northern Ireland where mid-20s (C) are possible between 2-5 July. London may see the first 30C of the year while it climbs into the mid-30s in Paris and up to 40C in Madrid.

However, based on long term setup and pattern, July looks to be another cool month overall with average to slightly above average rainfall across Ireland, Northwest UK into Denmark and SW Scandinavia. Warmer and drier further south through France into Spain and Portugal extending east into central Europe.

Like May and June, short lived warm spells look most likely during July with the UK stuck at the cross roads between a trough over the cold Atlantic and ridge extending from the Azores across the Mediterranean into central Europe.

It looks like southern Europe will be warmer and drier than normal with July opening on a particularly hot note. This warmth may linger through a good part of the month.

CFSv2 July 500mb height anomaly

CFSv2 July 2 metre temperature anomaly

July precipitation Anomaly

In today’s video I look at not just July but August too.

For more detailed updates including daily videos on next week’s heat wave and the UK pattern, sign-up today for as little as 69p.

 

 

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook