Good morning, trust you all had a great weekend. Back to the grind for another working week eh!

The good news is there’s little in the way of ‘bad weather’ today through at least Wednesday with a mix of sun and cloud and a few isolated showers, however it will be windy along the coasts, particularly the North Sea and English Channel coasts as winds blow around a building area of high pressure that’s establishing itself over Ireland and the UK.

Because this high is coming off that cold North Atlantic, this isn’t a particularly warm air mass and so daytime maximums will be restricted to between 12-20C and feeling cool in the breeze. By night, away from the urban heat island and it gets downright cold by mid-June standards with some frost for some. That’s despite northern areas having 24-hours of daylight on the northern horizon now. It’s just 2 weeks from the longest day of the year!

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Showers are possible over the Pennines in this setup while it’s stormy across parts of Iberia, southern France and central parts of the continent along the southern/eastern boundary of the high. Under the high it’s a quiet period up till Thursday for such areas as the UK/Ireland but conditions go down hill over France as the high slides east and a developing low over Spain is allowed to lift north bringing heavy showers and storms.

In fact the models haven’t changed in the late week scenario bringing heavy showers and potential storms into the southern UK. This would likely be later Thursday into Friday while a rain bearing front sinks south into Scotland through the weekend after a prolonged spell of largely dry weather with mix of sun and clouds and just the odd shower.

All in all, this pattern remains the same with high pressure never holding for any real length of time with rain and cool weather always lurking and ready to move back in.

The GFS ensemble shows the suppression of heights overall through the next 15 days showing that our pattern shall remains mixed with spells of sun, some modest warmth as well as cool with showers or longer spells of rain. There are new hints of warmer weather in the later of the period. We shall see as this has been shown a couple of times and never truly materialised, especially the further north you are.

Here’s the meteogram off the GFS for Dublin, Ireland.

Day 1-8

In the 9-15, the model shows a modest warming trend with highs climbing towards 21C or 70F.

Here’s the meteogram for Paris, France.

Day 1-8

Their average is now around 21C (70F), eventually peaking in July at around 23C (74F), note there’s ONE warmer day near 27C (80F) but it’s predominantly cool compared to normal.

Like, for Dublin, the model does see a warming trend for Paris in the 9-15 day with temps climbing towards 29/30C or 85-88F.

While the ground is pretty damp here over the UK, I noticed when in Paris this past weekend that the ground was rather dry.

This predominant ridge pattern shows it to be a drier than normal but cooler than normal June according to the CFSv2.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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