Recent winters have been warm to run of the mill cold (similar to my school days of the 90s) but the question some of you may be asking is why did we get the cluster of ‘cold winters’ between 2008 and 2011 and why haven’t we seen anything near as extreme in the past 3 to 4 years?
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
The sole answer to that question… sunspot cycles! We saw sunspot cycle 23 hit a minimum around 2009-10 hence why we experienced the coldest winter since 1978-79. We experienced one of the warmest winters in 2013-14, why? because sunspot cycle 24 hit a maximum.
Check out the graphic.
Credit: NASA
What’s also interesting is the global ocean temperature profile. There’s a very nice pattern.
If you look back at the start of May (now) between 2007-2011 there was TWO common denominators 1) cold North Pacific (horseshoe) and 2) warm North Atlantic AS SOLAR CYCLE 23 HEADED TOWARDS A MINIMUM. This forced a N Pacific trough/west US ridge and with a warm N Atlantic, this supported a N Atlantic/Greenland ridge hence the trough and cold over Europe.
Now as the sunspot cycle entered maximum territory, especially 2013 into 2014 with a peaking around Feb-March 2014, so the NORTH PACIFIC WARMED while the NORTH ATLANTIC COOLED, opposite of the pre minimum years.
The cooling of the North Atlantic I believe is potentially in response to a greater winter temperature contrast between Eastern Canada and the Caribbean which forced a stronger North Atlantic jet stream, creating significant upwelling/cooling of the North Atlantic waters shifting the cycle into a cold mode. For the best part of the last 25 years, the AMO or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has been warm and turned increasingly warm further north as sunspot cycle 23 hit the minimum.
By cooling down the North Atlantic, this supported a North Atlantic trough/Europe ridge and a much more active than normal trans-Atlantic storm track into the UK, hence warm, wet and very stormy in winter 2013-14 in particular.
Now look at the flip in temperature between Pacific and Atlantic in post minimum years and in the run up to solar cycle 24’s peak.
Ultimately a warm N Pacific/cold N Atlantic DOES NOT SUPPORT Greenland blocking or COLD OVER EUROPE and that’s why winter 2013-14 and 2014-15 was warm coupled with the solar max.
I suspect the Pacific will begin cooling after the current warm ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phase peaks and with sunspot cycle 24 expected to hit a minimum around 2020 combined with a cold North Pacific/warm North Atlantic again, we should bring the return of much colder winters like 2009-10, 2010-11 here.
What about winter 2015-16?
Well put it this way, based on a strengthening El Nino with still warm or very warm North Pacific and cold North Atlantic, I suspect a winter similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15 again I’m afraid.
Jamstec shows this in both sea and land temperature anomalies.
Be sure to watch the video for today’s discussion on this.
Be sure to click on the Activity tab at top right tab of the homepage and check out the various forums/groups. Add your thoughts and comments. Also see top right of screen ( your profile) for any new notifications.
[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
Recent Comments