After what will be a decent bank holiday Monday, a system gathering over western France will spread heavy and persistent rain into the South of England and Wales tonight. This could lead to some local flooding.

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During Tuesday this rain and wind lifts north over the UK but as shown in this morning’s video, another low waiting west of Ireland, moves in, reinforcing the unsettled theme.

This is a rather messy looking surface map during Tuesday.

Very Windy Wednesday

Notice how the GFS tapers both lows into one and by Wednesday (below) it’s deepened into a fairly significant wind machine with plenty of wrap around moisture feeding frequent, heavy and blustery showers with gale-force gusts likely along with hail, possibly rattles of thunder too.

That ‘windy’ low eventually clears into the North/Norwegian Sea during Thursday, packing some cold, NW winds on the backside but another system lurks down near to the Azores that spreads more rain our way late week into the start of the weekend.

Then another, larger low slides east off the Atlantic bringing yet more wet weather late weekend into early next week across Western Europe.

This is the pattern I’ve highlighted throughout April. Once this setup kicks in, it will be tough to remove.

QPF 10 day rainfall totals says it all.

The medium range models show the reluctance of the trough backing away now compared to late last week. We lose the deep, cold trough but are replaced with a westerly, zonal pattern heavily influenced by the Atlantic.

EPS control

GFS ensemble tries to get that building Med ridge up here but it’s more and more delayed.

Wet May’s do not make for a warm, dry summer!

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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