We now have the first legitimate US tropical or sub-tropical storm threat for May since 2012 along the Carolina coast this week as well as the first true surge of summer heat.

It’s also going to be an active week out in the Plains with severe weather including tornado threats combined with flooding rains.

There is a system developing east of Florida that the models now firmly show development with increasing chance of tropical characteristics. No surprise really given how warm waters are compared to normal.

Check out the difference in SSTA’s between early May this year and early May 2012 which last hosted 2 tropical cyclones.

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Early May 2012

Both warm off the South Atlantic coast but this year is far warmer and has led to the warmest April on record for parts of South Florida.

Those May storms back in 2012 were Alberto and Beryl which I believe both impacted the US coast.

Because waters are so much warmer this year compared to this time in 2012 and near 80 degrees which is close to mid summer values, if atmospheric conditions are just right, strengthening into a strong storm or weak hurricane cannot be ruled out. No hurricane has ever impacted the US during the month of May before.

Both GFS and ECMWF surface s charts look like this. Both take a system in close to the Carolina coast by next weekend.

GFS

This week will be dramatically different throughout the Ohio Valley and East as heat builds with 80s reaching many parts. There is even at chance at near 90 all the way to DC next weekend.

80s reach the East Coast as early as tomorrow afternoon but it stays warm throughout this week with a resurge of heat towards next weekend where DC could strike close to 90.

GFS 2 metre temps each afternoon from Tuesday onwards.

See today’s video for the discussion.

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