We currently have a trough and multi-low pressure complex circling the NE Atlantic/North Sea. With 3 lows attached and circling the UK and Ireland, it’s safe to say that the upcoming 7 days will be predominantly unsettled with wind and rain a common factor through this short working week.

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After a dry Feb-Apr and really Jan-Apr period, it appears the much anticipated cooler, wetter pattern has now kicked in.

30-day precipitation anomaly

90 day anomaly

QPF projected precipitation through the next 10 days.

Our dry soils will moisten fairly quickly in this with spells of heavy and at times persistent rain as these lows rotate around a larger upper low. If this setup lasts as long as I believe it will, well the feedback of those wetter soils should carry us into early summer on a cooler, wetter note.

As for this bank holiday weekend, the ‘tail of two halves’ idea first put out last Monday has come to fruition with a decent Saturday over Northern and Eastern parts but a cold, wet and windy Sunday.

As for bank holiday Monday, expect showers

The ECMWF is slightly less unsettled into the weekend compared to the GFS and also puts a ridge overhead late weekend into the start of next week.

Notice there’s less and less ridge and warm potential than a few days ago. I remain open to ridge potential towards mid month, we shall see.

CFSv2 weeklies keep showing a firm N Atlantic trough/W Europe ridge through the second half of May, don’t see it that strong or persistent.

Based on that, I am now swaying away from the CFSv2 precipitation projections now through summer. Temperature wise I still agree.

See video for today’s discussion.

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Tags: el nino, El Nino effects on Europe, ENSO