A couple of weeks ago I was leaning towards a warmer than normal May but as we progressed through this month I began to think twice.
Based on several factors including the strong Alaska to Greenland block we’ve got going and will continue to drive a chilly, wet pattern for much of the US as we end April and commence May. However, I expect some seasonal feedback to kick in by week 2 if not week 3 of May with ridging trying to spread east from California but increasingly wet soils and stubborn positives up in the Arctic and maybe Greenland may keep forcing cooler air masses to come into the Midwest, East.
The saturated ground and forecasted further heavy rainfall across the South up into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys should temper the heat but may make it rather humid into mid-May.
The CFSv2 weeklies show strong northern blocking with equally strong troughs pushing late season brand arctic air south but week 3 into 4 shows a shift.
I tend to agree with the CFSv2’s precip and temp forecast for May. The level of warm water surrounding the immediate US coast and in the eastern equatorial Pacific makes me believe that rainfall will be significant from the Gulf Coast up into the Heartland. This is sure to keep temps down.
Because of the amount of rain expected, the average to below average temp anomaly makes sense.
Check out the latest SSTA’s. Just look at how warm waters are surrounding the US and the strengthening of this El Nino.
Be sure to check out the US section of the website for daily US forecasts and analysis. In tomorrow’s post I shall show you the latest Jamstec forecast for not just the summer ahead but also the winter too! Stay tuned.
More on the May outlook in today’s video.
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