While a ‘somewhat’ wetter pattern returns to California next week, the dry pattern of the past 4 YEARS is only worsening one of the worst droughts in a lifetime.

The Sierra snow pack is sitting at a mere 6% of normal and never has there been so little snow as of April 1. This has forced the CA governor to issue the first ever mandatory state-wide water restriction.

This how the past winter turned out for central/northern California.

March 2014 looked like this across the country. Note the West with California 5-10F above normal.

Peak Sierra Nevada snow pack usually occurs around April 1st, here’s how it looked this year!

Many parts of CA have seen one of the driest starts to a year on record.

The coming precipitation is far too little to make any impression and I’m afraid the dry season is quickly approaching. The feedback of exceptionally dry ground and warm water offshore means stronger than normal high pressure and subsequently warmer surface temps is highly likely this summer with the real threat of a major, even unprecedented heat wave. Warmer temps mean greater evaporation of the ground. Can already bone-dry ground get drier?

The ‘permanent ridge’ of the past 24 months can be attributed to the western drought and more so the abnormally warm water stretching from the Baja to the shores of Alaska but with the strengthening El Nino, that very increase in water temps may help at least dent this historic drought later on this year but only after a long, hot and dry summer.

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Note the negative heights dropping down the West Coast, this will get the southern storm track going over the next 10 days.

QPF precip through the next 10 days.

GFS snow through the next 10 days.

CFSv2 holds warmer than normal pattern through remainder of spring and summer.

More on the rest of the US pattern Sunday. Be sure to watch today’s video for the discussion on the broader US pattern. Taking tomorrow off! Have a great Easter weekend.

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Tags: california drought, drought, el nino, Western climate