This week is a very mixed bag, a little of everything from cold and frosty, wet and windy as well as mild.

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We start the week on a cool, blustery and for some, showery note. Northwest winds are never mild or warm, particularly at this time of year when surrounding waters are coldest. This flow will bring the return of hill snow and possibly a rain-sleet mix to low levels.

Ridging builds in mid week and Wednesday looks frosty across a large area. Then it’s back to low pressure and spells of wind and rain Thursday-Friday into the weekend.

As the eastern side of North America turns cold again thanks to a deepening trough once again, this will force the upper air pattern to become highly amplified once again, strengthening the +NAO signal that’s ruled the past 2 winters.

I suspect ridging and the first warm spell of the year is poised for UK shores as we enter April.

The GFS ensemble is very much hinting at this.

The mean ridge is still positioned SW of the UK, arguing for NW flow but I recon we’ll see this ridge flex back and forth between Azores and UK. A battle between Icelandic low and Azores ridge throughout April-May.

There’s little change in the projected upper air pattern for April and May in the CFSv2 to what we’ve seen all of winter.

 

CFSv2 shows wetter than normal and average temps April and May for Western Europe. See today’s video for the discussion.

On the road. Will have more tomorrow.

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