Simply going by the current weather above our heads here in the UK and even across west-central Europe, i.e, Low Countries, Germany into Denmark, you’d never know the wild amplification of the jet stream currently streaming into Europe from the Atlantic. It’s about as wild and wavy as it gets.

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High pressure (south side of jet) currently rules UK airspace promoting settled, largely bright conditions but it’s set to weaken and shift SW allowing the jet to run DOWN the UK briefly. Weak fronts with merely thickened cloud drifts south obscuring most from the partial solar eclipse Friday.

Into Saturday and the high get’s pumped up again and pushes NE forcing the jet to go with it.. snaking back SW underneath and forcing continued heavy convective showers over SW Europe/Med.

GFS jet stream chart through the next few days shows this wild orientation.

As we press into Sunday-Monday, the snaking jet progresses eastward over Europe but extend back along the snake where it’s only just approaching the UK, it takes a southward dip over the UK where wetter, windier weather makes a return to Northern parts of the UK. This setup means a much more free flowing ‘wavy’ pattern with more typical westerly influence next week. Next week looks fairly run of the mill for late March with the best weather always further south and east.

The combination of the current wild north-south orientation of the polar jet and an increasingly active southern or sub-tropical branch jet, this means further heavy precipitation across the Mediterranean Basin and of course across Northern and Western Europe next 10 days.

ALL major models agree that the current high pressure pattern is set to collapse and retreat south with west-east orientation. Mean positive to the south and negative to the north sets up a fairly monotonous WSW zonal flow pattern to carry us out of March and into April.

GFS ensemble

EPS Control

See video for today’s discussion.

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