Both atmosphere and ocean over the Pacific are showing signs of a strengthening El Nino (finally). There also appears to be a trend more and more towards a stronger El Nino as we head through summer into next autumn. While I would take this somewhat with a pinch of salt as models have frequently showed a stronger nino only to have it fall apart, this needs to be closely watched as there appears to be more eveidence to back this up more. This could have impacts on our upcoming summer.
El Nino’s can have wetter as well as warmer implications on the UK as well as Europe. Especially during the second half of the warm season.
The NMME model is trending towards that stronger El Nino as we head for Sept. Left is latest/right the old run.
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What’s also interesting is that the Arctic Oscillation hit 3 sigma in just the last week. 2nd strongest, the strongest being 1997 when we saw the super El Nino.
Credit: WSI Energy
There are 4 tropical cycles currently over the eastern hemisphere ocean and 2 of which are identical twins around the equator.
We’re currently in the strongest phase 7 of the MJO (for March) since, you guessed it, 1997.
With the presence of the strong phase of the MJO and twin cyclones over the equator in the West Pacific, we have very strong low level westerly winds and according to Dr Phil Klotzbach, this is the strongest westerly wind event since the event which preceded the Super El Nino of 1997.
As for the here and now, a strong phase 7/8 of the MJO does indeed favour northern blocking and colder weather for UK, Europe and eastern North America.
Credit: NY Metro Weather
Remember what’s been shown in recent days?
Credit: WSI Europe
As already stated, yes it will be cold but I see no evidence to scream this as a major cold spell given the strong positive AO and lack of cold over Europe and Eurasia.
There is further evidence supporting the amplification of the El Nino. The ocean as well as the atmosphere is showing signs as the 20C isotherm A warm phase of the oceanic kelvin wave is pushing eastward across the Pacific.
Long range models agree on a strong El Nino
I made mention about wet but also warmer conditions during the 2nd half of the European summer. We had an El Nino going back in 2002/2003. Keep in mind that we did have ‘some’ El Nino influence last summer but like back in 2002/03, the El Nino strengthened into 2003 and that August lead to the hottest weather on record for the UK and many parts of Western Europe.
Every El Nino/La Nina is different. This is certainly interesting but also leading to a tougher forecast since I’m trending cooler and wetter compared to the last 2 ‘front end’s’ to summer. July 2013 was the UK’s warmest since July 2006 which was record breaking also. Last June and July were warm, dry also but not as warm as the previous summer overall, however Glasgow just down the road from me, hit 28.6C last July, the warmest since 2005, surpassing the warmer July’s of 2006 and 2013. In a post that day, I made mention of the possible influence of the El Nino that was weak but possibly playing a role. This summer may have greater influence from the strengthening Nino but exactly what influence very much remains to be seen. A stronger El Nino with warm pool nearer the South American coast this summer could lead to a warmer, drier back end to this summer following a cooler and somewhat wetter front end.
Latest CFSv2 precip forecasts through summer 2015.
The CFSv2 has average to slightly below average temps over the UK through the June-August period while the Jamstec has this.
By no means am I calling the Super Nino card but merely showing you the evidence which supports a strengthening nino this summer into next autumn which bears watching and possible implications here.
See video for more.
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