The extreme cold covering eastern North America is fuelling an exceptionally powerful jet stream over the Atlantic and in turn, storms are frequent and strong. This sets up a fairly wild setup for Ireland and the UK.

Check out the initial (oohr) 850mb temp gradient.

As a result the jet rounds the bend of the eastern US trough and rapidly accelerates out over the Northwest Atlantic.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Here it comes over to our side with a speed max of 200 knots or 230 mph. The slow down and dip AHEAD of Ireland is where cyclogenesis and spawning or deepening of low pressure occurs.

The last front pushes through today and behind it, much cooler air is following with a bite to the breeze along with lowering snow levels.

Each time a low’s associated front pushes through, so the jet dives south and we’re back in the colder air. We’re in the cold air today/tonight and tomorrow.

After a clear and cold start to Sunday, in comes the next front pushes Sunday.

Note the northward extent of warmer air west of a frosty UK.

Sunday surface charts

Brisk and pretty cold west winds blow in the wake of the main front through Monday and Tuesday but notice in the surface maps that the core of low pressure takes a dive southeast towards Ireland and the UK which sets the stage for a downright stormy middle part of next week.

Brief ridging settles things down before the next front swings in late week.

Some of these backside cold blasts will drive sleet and wet snow to low levels.

GFS ensemble shows more trough through the next 7 days followed by more zonal west flow week 2.

CFSv2 continues to show a strong Greenland negative/UK positive as we head into March. This screams a warmer, drier than normal March IF this was correct!

See video for discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]