The winter so far has been rather up and down with mild spells and cold spells.

Here’s how December turned out.

I think January will be above average across central, northern and eastern Europe, below average in the south, southwest and west including the UK and Ireland. I believe the cold spell we’re just coming out of will tip us into ‘below average’ territory. Last January was one of the warmest, wettest and windiest.

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I anticipate February to be coldest and cold across a broader area of Europe.

Next 5 days sees the return of the rollercoaster. Mild, wet and windy today. Tomorrow is colder with hill snow. Back to mild, wet and windy Sunday then a return to colder again Monday, blah, blah, blah..

Here’s the ECMWF surface maps through the next 240 hrs. NOTICE the shift come late week as that Atlantic high builds north and we begin to turn winds more northerly. Yes, the models are in good agreement that ARCTIC air returns next weekend.

Check out the intensity of the positive into the North Atlantic vs trough over Europe!

Not a lot in today’s write-up as I’m hitting the road but will have more tomorrow. Check out the video for the discussion.

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