There has undoubtedly been a distinct lack of negative NAO and even AO this winter. That’s despite seeing 3 cold spells. Sure, they’ve not been all that extreme on the grand scheme of things. The first during the first 2 weeks of December brought some snow and cold, the 2nd the week between Christmas and New Year was somewhat stronger and of course the current is the strongest of the three and the coldest spell UK/Ireland wide in about 2, maybe 3 years.
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Why the non negative NAO/AO again like last winter yet it’s colder this year? I believe this is down to the SOLAR DOWNTURN and not a solar minimum. The lack of cold altogether last year was down to the peaking of solar cycle 24. This year it’s coming off that max and so despite the lack of negative, there are other drivers that are overwhelming the neutral to positive NAO/AO and still allowing more winter.
Position of solar cycle 24 back in autumn. Note where it was in 2009-10!
From the get go I pointed out my fears about the solar cycle not being weak or quiet enough to bring us a great deal of winter.
I went middle road with this and stated that we would see winter and probably an average one based on solar position but the the reason behind swaying more towards a winter with decent spells of snow and cold was other aspects including east QBO, SST profile, weak central Pacific El Nino etc, I did think there was potential for a few cold spells of which 1, maybe two would be significant but there would also be plenty of mild, wet and wind too. Until that solar cycle enters minimum or near minimum territory, we won’t get 2009-10 again.
Credit: M Ventrice
So, far I think this winter is playing out pretty well.
Often with east QBO, central Pacific based El Nino’s and solar downturn years, we see the worst of winter during February and given the latest bout of warming within the stratosphere and the fact it’s lower down with greater chance of tropospheric influence (influence in our weather), I recon the worst of winter remains ahead of us.
Quite often the end game of winter sees the NAO/AO finally pop with cold February and March’s. I love what the JMA shows.
This current warming down to 70mb also supports the above.
Keep in mind that as we get into February, the atmosphere reacts different to the same drivers that were in play say back in December or early January. Feedback of warm-cold pools release energy into a colder atmosphere above and thus we get differing results as a consequence. Remember the waters surrounding the UK and off Western Europe have cooled by several degrees since autumn commenced. This has influence of end game’s to winter and early spring. I think the next cold spell is LONGER AND STRONGER based on the effects of SST’s, strong east QBO and the now CENTRAL Pacific based El Nino.
Just saying here and now. Look for a colder than normal spring this year!
Be sure to check out the video for more!
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