It’s another cold start across the Plains, Midwest and East thanks to the 3rd arctic high settling overhead. The good news for those tired of the cold is that temps haven’t been quite as bad as last January (up till now anyway) and there is moderation on the way.

However, we’re watching closely the potential for a Texas to New England ice and snow event which starts in Texas today. It’s all courtesy of a storm system currently moving out of New Mexico that will push into the cold, dense low level air already in place.

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There’s a great deal of uncertainty on snow potential. While both ECMWF deterministic and GFS show barely an inch of snow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, the EPS control shows a major event. A lot will depend upon whether energy coming out of Canada can connect with the system lifting north. Can it phase and produce a strong coastal storm which could make for a significant snowstorm? Right now I am going with the smaller scale event with pesky ice and a little snow which will snarl travel in the coming days.

Even the latest runs of the ECMWF which often blows things up on the coast, is downplaying the ‘big event’. It’s can’t be ruled out though!

The ECMWF 500mb shows the energy dropping out of Canada with the energy from the SW system lifting north but the key is whether these two connect.

Model snow projections

ECMWF

GFS

EPS Control

As we look ahead, expect some modifying of this cold pattern but only for a time as we see the AO head back negative. It’s interesting that this cold spell, now easing has hit when the AO has been firmly positive!

We’ve seen significant strat warming as the new year commenced and this is likely why the AO is heading back negative.

With warming also observed over the North Atlantic too, the NAO is also heading towards negative and so we should watch the period particularly from Jan 18 on as the chances of East Coast snowstorms as well as further arctic outbreaks increase.

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