In the video I said I wasn’t going to put up a written post today but since I’ll be taking tomorrow off, I thought I would throw up a few of my latest thoughts as we commence 2015.

Firstly, today… New Years Day. Notice the mild feel? That’s thanks to a strong SW wind blowing straight from the Azores. If somewhere in the UK surpasses 15.6C, this would be the warmest NYD on record. The below 850 temp chart shows the push of mild air from the sub-tropics.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

By tonight, the front sinks south introducing colder air once again with snow returning to the Scottish Mountains. As we end the upcoming weekend, high pressure builds in bringing back widespread frosts but this is quickly replaced by more wind and rain as the next system sweeps in.

The rollercoaster continues.

Notice the 10mb temp profile over the hemisphere with cold pool (polar vortex) positioned off the east coast of Greenland.

That’s a strong +NAO signal which supports low heights to our north and above normal heights to our south and so the westerlies keep on coming.

CFSv2 500mb height anomalies shows the setup well.

Take a look at the same 10mb temp pattern in just the next 7 days! This model KEEPS showing this MAJOR warming which will produce a major pattern shift around MID-JANUARY.

That folks is the ‘big SSW event’ we need to bring a true winter weather pattern to Europe and the UK. Up till now the vortex has been refusing to break but the GFS and ECMWF keep showing the big flip from cold to warm over Greenland which would produce firm -NAO and Greenland blocking high.

Here is the 10mb temps by day 10.

Don’t fret about the OVERALL mild, unsettled and up and down temp trend we’ll see over the next 2 weeks because we may be opening January warm but I am firmly confident we’ve an increase chance at ‘widespread snow and cold’ before the end of this month.

The winter forecast appears to be playing out well with a chilly start and colder finish to December. The next period which I am focusing on is January 20-31st for an even colder, bigger impact from winter across a bigger area. As stated in the forecast, there will be 10-15 day stretches of mild. Saw that from Dec 7-25 and now we’re going to see it Jan 1 through at least the 15th. Big difference is there will snow and cold spells that we didn’t get last year really.

Hope you enjoy the first day 2015. Will be back Saturday with more.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]