Well I trust your having an enjoyable Christmas Day so far. As forecast for quite some time, it’s a largely dry and bright but feeling rather than looking like Christmas out there.

Lot’s of interesting weather on the way over the next few days as we’re LIKELY to see the first significant snowfall outwith mountainous areas of Scotland starting tomorrow.

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After a cold Christmas night into Boxing Day morning where many or most will experience a hard frost, we’re watching closely a low pressure system that will push in from the WSW. That low will bring wind and rain but snow is expected too. The problem I’m facing is exactly where that snow will fall. The CENTRAL swathe of Ireland and the UK as well as parts of Belgium and the Netherlands look like the best bet.

GFS and ECMWF both take the developing low into the UK and then drops it south.

Even if you don’t see the snow, expect it to feel cold with easterly winds blowing some very chilly air in from Scandinavia and Denmark. Sea effect snow can’t be ruled out on the East Coast.

GFS and ECMWF snow cover forecast.

Europe

Initial

48h

168h

UK

Initial

48 hrs

168h

The Met Office has a yellow SNOW warning in effect for Boxing Day over parts of Ireland and the central swathe of the UK.

Following the late week/early weekend storm, a cold high looks to build providing lot’s of winter sunshine and below normal temps with chilly days and cold nights with hard frosts. Frost will likely not lift for many as temps in inland areas could hold at or just below freezing for highs.

The chill holds strong through Christmas to New Year week and into 2015!

GFS Ensemble 2-metre temp anomalies show below normal next 16 days!

GFS Operational is colder!

January is looking like a colder than normal month with potential for several snow events for Ireland, UK and near continent as northern blocking becomes established in a favourable position for holding the trough over Western Europe.

We may see some milder air returning around mid month but I expect the colder pattern to return through the second half of the month.

I’m liking what the CFSv2 is showing overall for January.

CFSv2 for January

700mb

850 temp anomaly

2 metre temp anomaly

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