There’s more confidence in the late December/start of January period but nailing down the details of the upcoming 7-10 days is a little more tricky.

Lot’s of uncertainty and shifting around of solutions to the system which develops over Texas and heads up the coast. How much cold air get’s involved?

The reason, it could make a world of difference as to who sees snow and who doesn’t. I recon colder air rushes in behind that system this weekend and this is the start of several waves of arctic air which comes down. Each wave which comes down should be colder than the last and as shown in recent days, remember there’s cross polar flow going on so by the time we reach New Year on into Jan 2015, the cold which is over the Lower 48 could be pretty extreme. By building a positive INTO the Arctic from Alaska, you create a connection between Siberia and Canada and that’s why Canada should turn into an ice box within the next 10 days!

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Here’s a look at the latest ECMWF surface depicting this coastal system this weekend but notice the cold gaining more ground over the N Plains. Alberta clippers may re establish a northern snow pack which has all but gone thanks to Chinook winds blowing over the Rockies.

500mb anomaly perspective.

Christmas Eve

Christmas Day

ECMWF shows a large 50% snow pack covering the country again by Christmas morning.

Remember what I’ve been saying about the BUILDING OF COLD OVER WESTERN CANADA as heights build up over Alaska into the Arctic, while the CFSv2 is all over the place, it’s latest run is seeing that very scenario. Just look at all the blue pretty much flooding Canada and with bridging the ridge between Alaska and Greenland, that cold can only go one place, SOUTH! This would be the period Dec 29 through Jan 4. Notice in week 4 it looses it. I don’t agree with that because this air that may dive south will be recharged arctic air. Keep in mind that the reservoir up there has been reloading and if that dives south like I believe it will, that cold will not just disappear or get handed off to the Atlantic Ocean given the NAO should be negative and thus heights are too strong off the EC.

Indexes all look promising. Check out the tanking AO!

See video for details on this exciting upcoming cold pattern!

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