One model run doesn’t make a forecast but when looking at the new run of the GFS, I must say it got me excited and if you love winter and live in the Midwest and East, well it should get you excited too.

It’s been stated for some time now that the period around Christmas towards New Year SHOULD get interesting, perhaps wild.

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The new GFS is going right to that idea.

Check out how the model keeps the storms coming into California next week but after the one that hits LATE NEXT WEEK, heights begin building up the West Coast. Cold starts to fill Northwest Canada and as we see heights rise over Alaska and into the arctic, look out, you know where that build-up of cold crossing the pole and into northern Canada is heading… especially when there’s a ridge forcing CROSS POLAR FLOW and then hooks up between Alaska and Greenland. The arctic door is reopened!!

Also keep in mind that the AO has been positive so arctic air has been reloading following the cold pattern back in Oct-Nov. The pullback in the last 2-3 weeks is good because when this east QBO, weak Nino pattern refires, the arctic reservoir is charged and ready to pounce with fresh cold.

Here’s the type of 500mb height anomaly pattern evolution many of us dream about between Christmas and New Year.

Let’s hope that this isn’t a fluke run.

Let’s take a look at the surface charts for confirmation that this is ARCTIC-SIBERIAN air if you need the proof…

Loving the CFSv2 week 3 and 4 as well as the 16 day GFS ensemble.

GFS ensemble 500mb height anomaly (7 day mean)

Day 0-7

7-14

9-16

I must stress that it’s still too far out to be sure about this but we will take a look at what other models are showing for the same period in coming days.

Be sure to check out the video.

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