Thanks to the direction which which Atlantic lows and their cold fronts have dropped into the UK, winter has well and truly arrived in the UK.

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Above 200 metres, there’s plenty of snow cover now in place and despite a very brief ‘warm-up’ during Tuesday, then next shot comes in behind a particularly deep system, so more snow is likely and then winds veer more northerly towards week’s end.

The upcoming 7 days looks to remain cold and unsettled with ridging both west and east of the UK and West of Europe in the means.

Within the next 10 days the ECMWF shows quite a few more systems pushing through and bringing further shots of cold air with them but I’m noticing in the later of the period that the troughs become a little deeper, possibly containing colder air.

It’s a snowy pattern with plenty mopre to come. May be tough to get the snow to sea level but above 2-300m and it’s all good.

GFS next 7 days.

ECMWF

Notice the common denominator with the above snap shots of the 500mb height anomaly, note that there’s pretty much always a positive both west and east. That’s a cold pattern despite it still being Atlantic. There’s a world of difference when you’ve air coming from the Azores like this time last year compared to Greenland this year!

There’s snow on the hills just north of my house. At this time last year we were awaiting the arrival of my daughter and there was no snow barely anywhere!

Now, I had a quick glance at the latest GFS 50mb temperature forecast between the initial and 240 hours and was intrigued at what it’s showing.

Just now at the wild movement with the polar vortex from NP to North Atlantic then swing across to the Europe-Asia border.

Initial

144 hrs

240 hrs

While the monthlies continue to show nonsense, the CFSv2 weeklies are catching on.

Check out it’s week 3-4… Week running up to Christmas and beyond!

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