The ECMWF continues to show the wild Northeast snowstorm mid to late next week but it’s showing a more interesting and exciting bigger picture. Modelling overall has become pretty consistent at forcing sharp height rises up towards Hudson Bay through the next 10-15 days and that is a cold, stormy setup for the Lower 48.

In the upcoming 7 day period we see explosive height rise from the N Plains across Ont, Que to Nflnd. When that type of banana high sets up, look out underneath.

Sure enough the ECMWF is on top of this with height collapses and the winding up of a significant coastal storm. Enough cold air gets shoved SE in response to the height rises further north and the shape of the ridging over top of the storm forces excellent cyclogenesis with cold forced in.

This system could be a major snow producer west of 95 in the mountains of PA up to ME with a blizzard up in New England.

Keep in mind the feedback of ocean-atmosphere. Waters off the coast are above normal…

Model sees 30-40 knot winds blowing in from the ENE with isolated gusts on exposed coast and high ground to 50kts.

This could easily make for a New England, Maine blizzard.

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Here’s the latest ECM snow chart through 168.

Check out the evolution of this setup via the 500mb height anomaly charts.

The Pacific door is now open and that means more wet weather for drought-stricken California. We have another system likely as big as the last pushing in next week pretty much at the same time the East Coast gets hit. Check out the latest QPF precip printout through the next 7 days.

With the strong banana positive focusing on Canada and an active southern branch we have an increasingly stormy and cold pattern evolving.

The southern branch shall remain active sending Pacific lows in and under the building positive up over Canada.

The model shows this as we enter the 168 to 240 hour period.

The GFS is 9 times out of 10 behind the ECMWF when it comes to catching onto things but finally it appears to be seeing the return of northern blocking as well as blocking up towards Greenland. Notice it has the first ‘negative’ trend in a few weeks.

The real cold key is the Arctic Oscillation and it’s going back negative too. Keep in mind that because we’ve had it positive it the last 2 going on 3 weeks, the polar air mass will have strengthened.

Check out today’s US video for more on this wild and exciting pattern coming up next week and in the run up to Christmas.

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Tags: california rainstorm, california weather, cold blast, New England blizzard, New England snow, Northeast snowstorm