W EUROPE: Cold, Wintry Weekend Followed By Storm & Temp Rollercoaster Next Week

Written by on December 4, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We have yet another cold front sweeping south across the UK today and it will make a move southeast tonight into tomorrow. Behind it, it turns noticeably colder, so much so that showers turn increasingly to snow and winds freshen from the northwest which means an ice risk Friday morning, particularly across northern parts of the UK and Northern Ireland.

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Saturday sees that front continue to push southeast while it’s a cold, blustery and (sleet and snow) showery day with highs of 3-6C but feeling fresher in the breeze. Rain showers are most likely nearer sea level BUT some heavier ones may draw colder air down and thus snow.

Saturday morning starts off mainly clear and cold with a widespread frost and ice risk. More snow showers will blow in on the cold NW wind and yes, low levels may see some.

Another cold front pushes through Sunday with colder following than tonight’s. This reinforcing  cold punch is likely to bring a bigger low level snow threat Monday going by the lower thicknesses and colder 850s.

ecmwfued---europe-72-A-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---europe-96-A-mslpthkpcp_white

850 temps are coldest yet.

ecmwfued---europe-96-A-850hgt

The tops of the North Pennines could well turn white.

Temps will be 0 to -3 to start Saturday only rising to 3 or 4 during the day. Factor in the NW breeze and it feels closer to freezing.

ECMWF shows a marked increase in snow between day 3 and 5.

ecmwfued-null--uk-72-A-frozentot10

ecmwfued-null--uk-120-A-frozentot10

NEXT WEEK sees a very deep low which pushes into the waters south of Iceland. Modelling takes it’s central pressure below 950mb and it’s associated cold front not only brings a temp rise followed by sharp fall following it’s passage but expect potential gales or severe gales with initial rain followed by snow. That’s mainly across Scotland.

So why such a strong low? Just look at the thickness and 850mb temp contrast along it’s front… Major collision between warm sub-tropical air and polar air being pulled off the Greenland ice cap.

ecmwfued---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---europe-120-A-850hgt

Another chance at snow with the cold sweeping in with that storm mid next week.

ecmwfued---europe-156-A-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---europe-156-A-850hgt

Let’s not forget our friends on the other side of the North Sea. Plenty of snow expected across Europe next 7 to 10 days.

ecmwfued-null--europe-168-A-frozentot10

ecmwfued-null--europe-240-A-frozentot10

The upcoming 8 day temperature rollercoaster for Glasgow as an example is seen nicely in the below meteogram.

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5584-450meteogram_sfc

Model still sees some snow for Glasgow, primarily late weekend into early next week and mid next week.

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5586-450meteogram_pcp

Lot’s happening despite no -NAO. Be sure to check out today’s video for a look at the longer term pattern.

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