While California has just got hit by the biggest rain storm probably since the start of 2014, it won’t be the last, in fact plenty more wet weather is on the way next week and beyond.

We have a different upper air pattern setup over North America compared to what we saw much of November as the Pacific opens up with one storm after another set to pump big amounts of precip into the West Coast including California.

More rain in 4-5 days for some places in California than ALL of 2013!

The early part of next week sees twin troughs on both Pacific and Atlantic coasts with ridging in between. While the truly arctic air will become bottled in Canada due to stronger westerly winds blowing eastward over the Rockies in a chinook format, enough cold air still gets drawn into an eastern trough where modelling suggests an East Coast storm develops (seen by ECMWF and not the GFS). This could spell SNOW for the I-95.

The Pacific storm train is now cranking with a series of soakers set to sweep into the West Coast next week on into the following week. A milder pattern is setting up with large positive covering the central part of North America in the means.

Check out the amounts and WHERE the biggest rainfall is nationwide over the next 10 days. From San Francisco to Seattle.

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Over 4 inches of rain has fallen in San Francisco over the past 5 days and that’s more than what fell all of 2013.

With regard to the East Coast storm and possible snow event, the ECMWF has backed off considerably between the precious and current runs.

It decreases the EC storm but appears to increase the precip and storminess down the WC.

Old run

Snow chart through 168 hrs

New run

Despite the model backing off some on the coastal storm, it still has Northeast snow.

7-day mean 500mb heights off the ECMWF. Pacific flow west to east shields the US from arctic air.

Does this warmth last?

Note the ridge core lifts north into Canada in the day 3-10.

Based on all that’s going on, I suspect the current and progressive strat warming will rebuild heights up into Alaska and the arctic over the next 10 days.

EPS control looks like this in the means through the next 15 days.

0-7

7-14

8-15

Notice how heights build up towards Hudson Bay. We’ll need to watch closely the storm which run underneath as they may start to tug on arctic air that’s reloading over Canada. Models may be picking up on a possible new phase of northern blocking with the Davis Straits and Greenland getting involved rather than just NE Pacific and Alaska.

Modelling shows strong height rises over Siberia over the next 15 days. This will force height rises into the arctic and between Alaska and Greenland.

See video for more.

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