Following in the footsteps of November, December and winter dawns on a frigid note down the Plains all thanks to the latest powerful 1045mb arctic high. A seemingly permanent feature since October. A feature which dominated last winter and will probably do so again this year.

Temps this morning were once again widely down to low single digits or below zero and today is by far the coldest with highs struggling to recover much above 0 over the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Morning lows.

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Temps at 3.30pm!

Wild 2nd Half To December?

While there’s a definite warming trend coming we have several drivers pointing towards a very cold second half of December.

I made mention in recent days about the MJO and the potential of heading into phase 6 and 7, favourable for cold… I also made mention about the latest surge of warming at 30mb between Siberia and Alaska… this also favours cold but another potential cold indicator is the possibility of a recurving West Pacific Typhoon within the next 7 days.

ALL these factors as well as what we’ve already witnessed suggests some real winter weather is heading for the US between Dec 15-31st.

That recurve is more likely with phase 6 into 7 of the MJO.

This favours a +PNA and that’s what the GFS ensemble sees with west ridge/east trough over the US.

Despite no solid evidence in the operational models. All of the above suggests a major cold outbreak later in December. We shall wait and see.

As for the NAO, well it remains largely positive but this will likely change as we head into winter. El Nino winters usually see the NAO become a bigger player mid to late season.

Good to see some significant moisture pushing into California now. This should be a trend into winter!

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