First and foremost, I want to show you the latest SNOW charts for the East Coast through 120 hours off both ECMWF and GFS.
Yes they now have an EC Thanksgiving snowstorm on the table.
ECMWF goes wild!
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
GFS more conservative but BOTH show a snowstorm through the Big Cities.
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This is a very interesting situation next week with the storm system and cold that follows. Keep in mind that the models have highs reaching near 70 early this week all the way to NYC, perhaps Boston.
More on this situation Monday but today I want to look more at the longer term pattern and potential intensity of cold that may be on the way this winter.
Yes I believe there’s potential for cold even worse than what we saw last winter based on the global pattern the current drivers.
The main player last year in my opinion was the warm NE Pacific while this year we have the downturn in solar cycle 24 and easterly QBO which both INCREASE the chance of a North Atlantic/Greenland as well as Alaska blocking and sudden stratospheric warming events.
We may be on the brink of another SSWE (sudden stratospheric warming event) based on early and persistent warming which has put increasing pressure on the polar vortex. We’ve already seen incredible cold this month across most of the US as a result.
The last SSWE occurred in December 2012, more noteworthy cold was produced by the 2009 example and even more extreme, 1995 and 1985.
The day 11-15 ECMWF ensemble shows this occurring in early December.
Credit: WSI Energy Weather
The above would likely trigger another SSWE but because of the weak El Nino coming on, east QBO and other variables, I wonder whether 2014 may see the extreme example in terms of temperature.
These SSW events are often triggered by a decrease in solar activity and increased Siberian snow during October.
Via Anthony Sagliani
The cold of this month may be just a taster of things to come.
Nov so far?
Credit: WSI Energy Weather
Some of America’s biggest winters see rapid Siberia snow pack growth in October followed by major early season cold in Nov AHEAD of an SSW or sudden stratospheric warming event.
some past big SSWE’s
1984 into 85
More recently
2009 into 10
Most recent example. Cold but not as extreme.
2012
Notice the warming ALWAYS starts in Siberia where it all begins. I believe this month’s extremity of cold is a true indicator of potential late 1970s, 1985 or 1995 style cold on the way!
Will have the next update Monday!
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Do you think it’s possible, given these collective changes afoot, and with these cold Siberian/polar air masses likely being “set up” (and/or funneled?, compressed?, channelled?) to push down into N. America and Western Europe, that the Winter of 2014/15 could result in even “worse” (i.e., extremely and abnormally colder) chilling events than the Winter’s you’ve cited here in this report of NOV 22?
You were correct in predicting, well before the events, that the now infamous NOV OF 2014 might well break many existing records for cold weather across the USA, including snow and related fall out. Your predictions were careful, correct, and spot on!
Records were broken in many cases dating back to, in some places, the earliest records kept – going back to the 1880’s, late 1800’s, and early 20th Century.
So given all this and what it portends for the upcoming Winter… Just wondering!
I think based on all parameters and the fact the atmosphere is showing just how extreme the pattern is capable of this year, I recon there’s ‘potential’ at least for something special in terms of cold outbreaks this winter. Could beat what we saw last winter. Will discuss more on that in coming posts! Hope you had a good weekend, Kathleen.