So far, so good regarding my autumn forecast. I highlighted the ‘end of Oct’ period as a particularly wet spell with increased threat of flooding rainfall.

It appears we have a ‘flooding event’ now in progress across the West Highlands of Scotland with a near identical surface setup to November 2009 which brought the big Cumbria floods.

Massive 3-day rain totals projected by the QPF! Yes up to 6-8 inches may fall in favoured areas within the next 72 hours… Watch as this captures news headlines with rivers bursting banks and following Highland villages…

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Deep low SW of Iceland with active ‘STALLED’ frontal system that’s drawing a near Atlantic-wide fetch of moisture is to blame. Like we saw back in 2009, this hose of rich moist air is pointing at a mountain range which enhances the rainfall rate and amount.

A big Iberia to Scandinavia ridge is stopping this boundary from moving and so the plume of moisture just keeps on piling rain into the upslopes of western Scotland, maximising the orographic influence. Expect 6-8 inches of rain over the next 72 hrs. REMEMBER, where it rains most now, that can be where the cold heads for later! Hold onto that thought…

Current

Nov 19, 2009

Even by Tuesday the hose has failed to shift away from Western Scotland. Major flooding is likely to be occurring by this stage but probably before…

FINALLY by Wednesday the front starts to drop south but it opens the door to s0me pretty cold air. Little change from what the models have been saying for about a week now.

We find ourselves in a northerly air flow Thursday.

Then in comes our next Atlantic system by Friday into Saturday. Check out the trough and cold drilling back into eastern Europe once again…

Out a week from now and the GFS shows low pressure domination. Watching Scandinavia closely as significant Atlantic moisture slams into some rather cold air.

This type of situation that’s occurring now with long fetch moisture plumes which bring ‘tropical-like’ rain events was a concern for this time period and I suspect more of this type of situation ‘may’ occur over the next few weeks at the atmosphere cools and the feedback of warmer than normal water begins.

The GFS appears to show more long fetch rains streaming into more southern parts of the UK into the 7-10 day period.

I warn folks in the south as well as other parts of the near continent including the low countries and Denmark, watch out for ‘flood events’ during November into perhaps early December!

QPF rainfall for next 10 days.

The latest run of the ECMWF shows not only snow continuing to fall over north, east and southeast Europe but also over the higher plateau of Iberia. Remember there’s another cold trough poised to drop into eastern Europe later next week.

This was the scene in Bucharest, Romania last night as the first snow fell.

Hyper active ‘wet spells’ which bring flooding often are followed by winter type weather into late November or December.

Next 16 day 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

See video for discussion.

WINTER FORECAST WILL BE RELEASED SATURDAY 1 NOVEMBER!

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