The QPF reaches the top of the precipitation scale over the Pacific Northwest next 10 days and by that I mean there’s a large area of 9+ inches. Thanks to a series of storms blowing in from the Pacific.

This means A LOT of snow in the mountains, especially up in British Columbia.

With the exceptions of the far North, the majority of California remains bone dry, missing out on the major moisture piling into the PNW but the good news is that as we head into winter, the jet stream should become more active further south as the atmosphere reacts to the warm water which we haven’t seen down the West Coast during winter for quite a few years!

This is the arid scene today outside of Concord near the Bay Area.

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What’s interesting about the heavy precipitation beginning to really focus on the PNW, looking at the broader picture we appear to have a western trough/eastern ridge pattern to end October and start November. This fits my long term ideas for this fall.

GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies (7-day means) show this setup nicely.

The PNA is heading negative/NAO positive which also supports the west trough/east ridge.

While I’m struggling with the CFSv2 these days, I have to agree with it’s temperature anomaly forecast for the upcoming weeks.

Not forgetting the upcoming coastal storm for the EC as well as the potential Upper Midwest snow I think is possible by the end of the month, so watch today’s video for more on that. In tomorrow morning’s update I shall show you the latest long range models for the upcoming winter. Stay tuned.

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