The tropics are stirring with Hurricane Gonzalo now a powerful Cat 4 storm taking aim at Bermuda then Newfoundland. My reason for mentioning this in the Europe post today is because we’re probably going to have Gonzalo strike our shores as a cold core low next week. One of MANY that will take aim over the next 1-2 weeks in this highly ‘Atlantic pattern’.

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The upper air pattern between the tropics and Western Europe suggests Gonzalo comes ashore over Ireland and UK on Tuesday. This is NOT unusual or anything particularly special but simply interesting from a meteorological standpoint. If anything, it may bring flooding rainfall but it’s simply a part of a wet, windy TYPICAL October pattern.

Not before hammering Bermuda as a potential devastating hurricane…

Visible satellite view just after sunrise. Stunning and terrifying sight for Bermuda…

Infrared view.

October is an infamous month for tropics meeting the mid-latitudes and Europe, brought about by the shifting season. Once powerful hurricanes which transition, frequently get swept into Western Europe via an intensifying jet stream. These former tropical lows can contain more juice over our shores than ordinary cold core lows since their source region is the tropics after all. Warmer than normal waters surrounding the UK can also enhance rainfall here as well as the merging of warm-cold air and the strengthening of the jet as a result, can mean quite the wind and rain event for us. There’s no need to hype Gonzalo (for here) because October has brought some of our strongest lows and this will be typical of October’s wind and rain makers. Our benchmark storm for October goes to the Storm of 1987.

That’s next week but the big low currently out over the Atlantic, once spanning some 2,500 miles across is now bringing wind and rain across our shores. It’s also drawing mild air north from the near tropics and should pump air temps into the low 20s across southern England, 15-18C up into Scotland but once winds turn from S to N and W, expect a sharp drop back to normal.

The below 7-day weather forecast for here shows the trend nicely.

This ‘warmth’ isn’t unusual even for this time of year when you’ve low pressure pushing through. The size of the circulation associated with that Atlantic low is allowing warmer air way down past the Azores to get lifted north and thus that’s the reason for low 20s in mid-October. The next set of lows will bring milder air followed by colder ahead and behind the fronts but not as warm because these circulations won’t tap air as far south as this one will.

The atmosphere is like a two lane highway at the moment with warm air driving north across the west while cold air drives south over the east.

As a result of the cold further east, Finland woke to bitter cold with one locale dropping to -15.5C overnight.

Back to the west and Trysil Ski Resort in Norway is encountering heavy snow this morning as moist air from off the Atlantic comes up against the arctic air.

As the remnant low of Gonzalo likely crosses or passes near to the UK early next week, it could bring major late October snowfall to eastern Europe 48 to 72 hrs later.

Note the above surface chart at 156 as Gonzalo crosses the Baltic Sea and hits the very cold air mass coming out of NW Russia! Note the 510 heights!

Get ready for SNOW North and Eastern Europe as arctic air digs and collides with moisture rich air streaming in from the Atlantic. This may be the early seeds of the upcoming winter starting to sprout!

10 day rainfall off QPF.

Plenty of rain coming to Ireland and western Great Britain while heavy snow is on the way for a large swath of Scandinavia, eastern Europe.

ECMWF day 3-10 500mb height anomaly.

Slower return to neutral NAO supports more westerly air flow into Europe through the rest of this month.

SEE VIDEO FOR MORE!

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Tags: europe weather, gonzalo to hit europe, hurricane gonzalo