We have a fair amount of rain in this pattern but notice WHERE the heaviest precipitation is focusing on. The WEST, where it was driest back in September. This could be a significant indicator for later but we must see this pattern mature into late October and especially November.

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We’re certainly in a low pressure pattern with a queue forming particularly from Thursday on into next week. Looks like (current) Hurricane Fay which hammered Bermuda is recent days may join that low pressure queue taking aim at Ireland and the UK mid next week.

We currently have low No 1 over SE UK, No 2 is huge, spanning the entire N Atlantic. It’s fronts sweep across us by the second half of the week into the weekend but offspring appears to form from that low, bringing further wet and windy weather ahead of the remnants of Fay.

GFS surface charts showing the attack of low pressure through 240 hrs.

LOW 1

LOW 2

LOW 3

LOW 4, that’s just ahead of the remnants of Fay which you can see just west.

LOW 5 (remnants of Fay) could be a big rainmaker IF this were to be correct…

Back before the winter of 2009-10, I remember Joe Bastardi pointing out that where the focus of anomalous rainfall is mid and late autumn, that can be where the winter trough sets up the following winter. Yes I know I keep repeating myself but I am trying to show you what I’m seeing. Even with a heck of a lot of rain next month and all other aspects pointing towards cold, doesn’t mean it HAS TO BE COLD here unfortunately and I still reel from the bust of year last and fear calling the cold card again.

One of my subscribers recently pointed out that there are some forecasters already writing off the winter. There are some which focus on warm and go by recent trends which arguably have been warm following the cold first half to winter 2010-11. There are others which call the cold card. I admit, I am probably one of them but the difference is (I believe anyway) is that I am showing you the WHY of my thinking but even when EVERYTHING seems to be pointing towards cold, well it can still fail.

REASONS WHY THIS WINTER LOOKS COLD FOR W EUROPE

1) Solar cycle 24 is on a DOWNWARD trend.

2) The QBO has reversed from last years strong westerly to a now easterly

3) The above supports northern blocking INCLUDING over Greenland

4) The El Nino looks to be ‘central’ Pacific based (like 2009-10)

5) NAO (see below) is negative in the means which is opposite of last year at this time

Even with ALL these positive factors, we may still not see a winter like 2009-10 but we also might. There are more favourable factors this year including one very important one, one that ultimately busted last winter’s forecast, the QBO was blowing the opposite way to what favours blocking and cold over West or all of Europe.

Long range modelling supports cold but as pointed out to one of my the subscribers, the CFSv2 is tough to reply on as it suggests one thing and gives out another. In other words it contradicts itself but suggesting a northern blocking winter but has WARM not cold in the very areas that should be cold.

JMA (highly reliable model) shows the cold over eastern US and western Europe.

Jamstec

Be sure to check out this morning’s video for discussion.

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