It’s been a wild weekend and close to last week across Western Europe thanks to low and high pressure funnelling north the warmest weather of the summer. The energy built as the mid and upper atmosphere cooked on top of the hot, humid low levels which forced a sharp thermal gradient, a setup which significantly accelerated the rate at which the hot, humid air rose into the cold upper levels. As a result, some of the most dramatic thunderstorms seen across the UK in years was generated.

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This week is significant for us here in Scotland and particularly the Glasgow area. This Wednesday’s sees the commencement of the 2014 Commonwealth Games at Celtic Park in the East End.

ECMWF 500mb height anomaly chart for Wednesday! I’m calling for a high near 26C in Glasgow.

UK close-up

2-metre temperature anomaly

The good news is HIGH PRESSURE builds following the stormy weekend with the very system responsible diving into Italy and the Med. The high which builds looks strong enough to cap off any threat of cloud/showers or storms, presenting mostly sunny skies and some of the warmest temperatures of the summer so far.

I stated last week that the focus of heat may be centred over Scotland through the next 7 days as the core of the ridge sits to the north of the Norwegian Sea. Strong UPPER LEVEL ridges produce a deep warm layer which extends from the surface up to 5,000ft. This supresses the atmosphere’s upward motion and instead of rising air, sinking air occurs and as air sinks, especially from higher altitude, it heats. The warmer surface temperatures occur nearest the centre of high pressure and the centre will be to the north of Scotland.

Look for warmth to start building tomorrow (Monday) but each day will grow warmer. Highs Monday will be in the 21-25C range, by Wednesday it’s likely to be in the 24-28C range with central Scotland including Greater Glasgow possibly in the 23-27C range.

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts for the upcoming 7 days.

Note the break down seen by the GFS by Friday. The ECMWF is later but the good thing is, the longer term setup appears to remain the same as the upcoming 7 days. Ie, a banana high extends from the UK up and over to Russia with the core centred over Scandinavia.

7-mean 500mb height anomalies.

0-7 days.

8-14

9-16

CFSv2 has core of positive firmly over the UK next 2 weeks!

Don’t see much shift in this somewhat mixed but predominantly stable, high pressure dominated pattern through MID-AUGUST, lot’s of fine, warm summer sunshine to come…

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Tags: commonwealth games, glasgow 2014, glasgow weather, scotland weather