We have a NW to SE divide across the UK this week thanks to a ridge over the continent and trough west of Ireland. It’s a classic summertime setup with moist systems crossing northern Ireland and Scotland while head further south and you get into the sunshine and warmer, more humid air.

Here’s how the 500mb height anomaly looks for the next 7 days.

ECMWF

GFS (Operational)

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This setup should bring the UK’s warmest air so far.

As systems push into Scotland, southwest winds and warmer air crosses southern and eastern parts. The Southeast of England is destined for 30C by Thursday. 23 today, 25 tomorrow, 27 or 28 Wed and 30 Thursday but look out NI, The Rep and Scotland, BEFORE the arrival of each batch of wetter, windier conditions, look for a nice burst of warm or very warm air. As I’ve pointed out almost everyday, RIDGING is ruling! It’s not so much the ridge over France, Low Countries and Germany that brings the heat but the trough and movement of the low pressure train riding the western flank of the high. Think of these lows as pulses which reinforce the warm surges into southern Britain.

Here’s how the next 5-7 days is looking over the UK and the rest of Europe according to the ECMWF.

How’s precipitation anomalies looked across Europe in the last week, 2 weeks and month?

7-day anomaly

15-day

30-day

Above normal over central and southern areas as forecasted for MONTHS by the CFSv2, below normal for UK and Scandinavia.

How are the temperatures doing?

Past 7 days (6-12th)

Look at how strikingly similar the above anomalies are compared to the CFSv2 July temps all the way back in April. Great forecast by the CFSv2!

See today’s video for discussion!

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