Before looking at the more localised picture, I want to span out and show you broader Atlantic chart and what’s driving our pattern this summer so far.

This windstream chart from last night captured on the MeteoEarth app depicts beautifully the great Mid-Atlantic upper ridge, a semi permanent feature which provides a bubble of mostly sunny skies and warm weather. This sprawling feature is permanent, weak and further south during winter, stronger and further north during summer. Southern Europe and the Med enjoys it’s presence throughout the heart of summer. It’s this weather system which provides the guaranteed hot sunshine most of us head for during the holidays.

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Periodically this ridge extends further north and east, providing us here in the UK, Ireland and Western and northern Europe with warm summer sunshine and little or no rain. The Atlantic lows which often spoil summer weather at our latitude are forced to take a more northerly route into Scandinavia or points further north or their held in a holding pattern out over the N Atlantic where they await the weakening of the ridge.

This year, it’s been more dominant, other summers it’s less dominant. Last summer, especially during July, it was very dominant.

The western flank of this cross-Atlantic ridge is known as the Bermuda high which provides all the heat and humidity to the eastern United States while the eastern flank is known as the Azores high providing all the heat and humidity to the Canaries, Mediterranean and North Africa extending into the Middle East where it’s strongest. This ridge on all sides flexes back and forth. It’s strength is determined by a whole load of circumstances including SST’s, the ENSO and soil moisture content. It’s been stronger both this summer and to a greater extent last summer but previous years, it’s been shoved way to our south with low pressure the dominant driver, likely due to the warm AMO.

Here’s the current 500mb height chart across the Atlantic showing the mid-Atlantic ridge stretching from Florida all the way to the UK at the moment.

The Local Picture

Unless you live down the eastern side of the UK or over Ireland and Northern Ireland, today is looking like another great day for outdoor plans with mostly sunny skies and warm sunshine. Should feel comfortable with highs in the 19-24C range.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for today.

The tight pressure gradient between the high off Ireland and low over the Netherlands is producing strong to nearly gale-force winds down the North Sea and these are skirting the UK east coast.

These strong winds are suppose to be generating 8-10ft swells which is quite significant given the time of year.

Tomorrow will be similar but warmer and more humid in the east. Less rain than we’ll see today.

Wetter weather moves in Saturday across the north as a system pushes in from the Atlantic.

Europe view.

The current ECMWF surface analysis shows the weekend system slow to clear the UK but the ridge builds back in mid next week before the next system arrives by the close of the week.

Tues

Wed

Fri

Here’s the 500mb chart for next Wed.

Despite the model showing systems riding the northern periphery of the Azores high with unsettled spells for the UK, the mean 500mb heights remain above normal across Ireland, the UK and western Europe through the next 7 days. It shall also remain warmer than normal.

I must say, anytime the model hints at any true breakdown, high pressure, though ‘weakened’ is not defeated and always come back. I see no change through the rest of July with a back and forth between ‘modest unsettled’ and warm, settled summer sunshine.

The CFSv2 is quite back and fourth these days and most of the time with it’s 500mb height anomalies but it’s newest run shows the ridge waxing and waning over the UK into early August.

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