In today’s post I want to look at how things are looking over the next couple of weeks as we approach the mid way point of summer 2014. How would you rate this summer so far on a 1-10 scale? By UK standards I think it’s been pretty good. Sure it’s had it’s moments been there’s been decent warmth. Not cool and not too warm either. Plenty of opportunity for BBQ’s and outdoor activities. No real washout days that I can think of.

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Despite recent ‘below average’ heights, our weather has not been dominated by wet, chilly weather like we can get during summer and so I am not fretting over the projected 500mb height anomalies over the next 16 days according to the GFS ensemble.

ECMWF Control

When looking at the ECMWF Monthly, there appears to be a ridge pumping warm to very warm air up into the UK and western Europe between the 14 and 16th of July then another trough swings in.

Another ridge appears around the period between 22-24th ahead of the next trough.

Moral is, despite the MEAN 500mb heights largely below normal, there’s still ridging in between lows/troughs and even with a trough overhead, like we’re seeing currently, we’re still getting decent warm sunshine.

How’s August looking this far out? CFSv2 is hinting at warmer than normal. I recon we remain with the current pattern. In saying that, we may get a warmer second half of the season though since the El Nino may start to influence the atmosphere.

I suspect a warmer than normal western low country (France to Denmark) given the projected below normal precip!

How’s the past week been across Europe?

Precipitation has been average across the UK and Ireland, touch wetter over the Western Isles, wetter than normal where the trough has been lingering over Spain and France, drier in central Europe.

The mean temperature anomaly shows parts of the UK as well as much of central Europe above normal.

Here’s the rainfall anomaly across Europe over the last 30 days. Noticeably drier than normal over northern half of Europe including the UK and Ireland.

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