Unsurprisingly, we awaken this morning to newly formed Tropical Depression One, soon become Arthur.
Source: NOAA
Current water vapour across the Atlantic. TD 1 clearly noticeable off Florida.
Source: AccuWeather
Though it may only be July 1 but waters are bathtub warm already beneath and in the projected path of Arthur to be.
Source: AccuWeather
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The system is experiencing a relaxing shear environment above waters that are into the low 80s. Soon enough we should begin to see this system better organise with thunderstorms that are mainly on the southern side, begin to wrap around.
The National Hurricane Center has TD 1 becoming Cat 1 Hurricane Arthur with an Outer Banks landfall during Friday!
Current model spread all points to NNE track up the EC, skirting NC.
Source: AccuWeather Pro
Here’s the current forecast track from the NHC.
Source: NHC
Latest ECMWF 500mb chart shows the system becoming a pretty decent hurricane (perhaps moderate to strong category 1 hurricane with a brush off the Outer Banks before pulling off the coast out into the Atlantic as the trough comes through the Northeast sending it on it’s merry way.
As well as having to watch the developing tropical cyclone off Florida, last night saw some wild thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest while a huge, sprawling MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) crossed the Central Plains.
Here’s the latest infrared imagery from NASA (below) showing the storms tracking across eastern Michigan into Lake Huron which brought the flash floods to Madison, WI and a derecho across Chicago as well as the ball of convection that is the weakening MCS.
Source: NOAA
Close-up of TD 1 and the storms over the US.
Source: NOAA
Here was that flooding in Madison, WI yesterday again.
Credit: Kyle Nelson
SEE VIDEO for Discussion. Will have a new update later.
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